diff --git a/src/core/thread/mle_router.cpp b/src/core/thread/mle_router.cpp
index 609633cde..7bcbb6acc 100644
--- a/src/core/thread/mle_router.cpp
+++ b/src/core/thread/mle_router.cpp
@@ -4115,8 +4115,8 @@ exit:
 
 bool MleRouter::IsExpectedToBecomeRouter(void) const
 {
-    return IsRouterEligible() && !IsRouterOrLeader() &&
-           (Get<RouterTable>().GetActiveRouterCount() < GetRouterUpgradeThreshold()) && !mAddressSolicitRejected;
+    return IsRouterEligible() && IsChild() && !mAddressSolicitRejected &&
+           (GetRouterSelectionJitterTimeout() != 0 || mAddressSolicitPending);
 }
 
 void MleRouter::HandleAddressSolicit(void *aContext, otMessage *aMessage, const otMessageInfo *aMessageInfo)